Durban Districts Darts Association KZN, South Africa

Durban Districts Darts Association KZN South Africa

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Sunday, 10 June 2007
OUT SHOT on 80 (interesting)
Erik writes "You are playing 501 and it's time to hit that out. You've got 80 left, what do you do? Trip 16, Double 16? Is that your shot? Really? Are you Phil Taylor? Even if you were, what are the odds you'd hit that out? Are you REALLY sure?

Let's take a look at an 80 out shot on the 16's...and let's assume you ARE Phil Taylor (11 time winner of the Ladbrokes.com World Masters Championship)...

Phil hits about 30% to 33% triples, so assuming he is looking at 80 out, what would he do?

To hit a trip 16 double 16 out shot, he needs to shoot the triple first, but he has a 67 to 70 % chance of missing!! WHAT? This is Phil Taylor we are talking about! Holy Cow!

If I told you there was a way to turn that around would you be interested? How about a 67 to 70% chance you would HIT your first dart? How about the second dart too?

OK, back to the out: If Phil shoots and he misses the Trip 16 (which is 67-70% likely) he has 64 left. 64 + 16 =80 right? OK, so now in order to take that out he MUST hit a triple or a double BEFORE he can throw again at a double.

I can almost guarantee he WILL NOT take that chance. He'd rather win he game then take a chance like that...how about you?

Let's look at it this way: You've got 80 and you been banging away at the 20's all night, so why not hit another one? You have at least a 70% chance of hitting that puppy (at least if you are Phil Taylor but likely many intermediate players have a high chance too -- certainly higher then the Trip 16).

Now, if you hit that single 20 -- just what you wanted -- then you only need one more (again a 70% chance of getting it) to set you up for the double out....a double tops -- again right where you have thrown all night!

If odds are important -- and anyone that says they are not is lying, or has never played and tried to get to a Double 16 -- then take the odds better out!

80 Out is: Single 20, Single 20 Double 20.

BUT, what if you accidentally hit a Triple 20 with that 1st dart? Easy Peasy Mate, toss in a Double 10 for the finish...

In fact, if you were to hit a Single 5 you still have a shot (albeit tougher) by going Single Bull Double Bull, or Trip 17, Double 12. In fact the list goes on and on, but starting with a fat single 20 is the way to go.

So why do so many insist that 80 Out is Trip 16 Double 16? Perhaps they never really looked at the out and the odds of hitting it, or just assume that since some old fella at the pub told 'em that's the way then that's the way.

Incidentally, I've hit 80 out by going Trip 16, Double 16, but that's not the best way to take that shot when it counts. However, it can be fun when it is less important, or you are feeling very cocky. But if my money were on the line, and I was shooting in a game I must win, I WILL ALWAYS go Single 20, single 20, double 20 -- 80 Out.

Erik
posted by Durban & Districts Darts Association @ Sunday, June 10, 2007  
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Name: Durban & Districts Darts Association
Home: Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa
About Me: is based in Durban Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. We were formally known as Southern Natal Darts and have been established since 1947, then were re-established as DDDA in 1996
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